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Hard · Conditional Expected Value · Quant Trader interview question · probability, expected-value, information-theory, trading-strategy
You are considering betting on an event. The probability, $p$, of the event occurring is unknown but is modeled as a uniform random variable between 0 and 1 ( $p \sim Uniform(0, 1)$ ). You have the option to bet on the event. If you bet, it costs you 0.50 dollars. If the event occurs, the bet pays you 1 dollar (for a net profit of 0.50 dollars). If the event does not occur, you lose your 0.50 dollar bet. You also have the option of not betting at all. Currently, without any additional informatio