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Medium · Conditional Expected Value · Quant Trader interview question · calibration, confidence-interval, estimation, uncertainty
You are interviewing for a trading role. As part of the interview, the interviewer asks you to provide a 90% confidence interval for the length of the Nile River in kilometers. You are not allowed to look up the answer. The goal is to assess your calibration and ability to estimate under uncertainty. Provide a range such that you are 90% confident that the true length of the Nile River falls within that range. Consider the implications of being too narrow (overconfident) versus too wide (underc