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Medium · Probability & Statistics · Quant Trader interview question · probability, bayesian-inference, expected-value, beta-distribution
You are analyzing a potentially biased coin. You start with the belief that all biases are equally likely, meaning your prior distribution for the probability of heads, $p$, is Uniform(0, 1). You flip the coin once and observe a Head. What is your best estimate (expected value) of $p$ after observing this single Head?