Weekly Market Report (February 09, 2025) - Insights and Forecasts
Dive into the market analysis for February 09, 2025, covering SPY, QQQ, IWM, and the week’s key economic data. Stay ahead with expert insights and forecasts.
Weekly Market Report for February 09, 2025
This week was eventful for the stock market, with major indices experiencing ups and downs before closing slightly lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.5%. Much of the early-week news revolved around tariffs, as President Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico (except for Canadian energy, which faces a 10% tariff) and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Canada and Mexico secured a one-month delay on these tariffs, while China responded by imposing new tariffs on U.S. coal, LNG, crude oil, agricultural machinery, and certain cars, as well as restricting key mineral exports and launching an antitrust probe into Google. Despite these developments, investors saw China’s moves as more of a strategic stance rather than a severe economic threat, and many believe the tariffs are temporary bargaining tools rather than long-term policies.
Economic data also shaped market expectations. The December Jobs Openings Report showed a sharp decline in job openings, while weaker-than-expected Services PMI numbers from China, Europe, and the U.S. raised concerns about economic growth. January’s jobs report revealed a 0.5% wage increase, fueling inflation worries, while consumer sentiment data indicated rising inflation expectations. These reports led to shifts in interest rate expectations, with the probability of a rate cut by June dropping to 52.8% from 64.6% the previous day. Treasury yields adjusted accordingly, with the 2-year yield rising to 4.28% and the 10-year yield falling to 4.49%. Earnings reports also made waves, with Google (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN) posting significant losses, while other major companies like Palantir, Qualcomm, Spotify, Merck, Estee Lauder, and PepsiCo reported their results.
Weekly Market Heatmap
Weekly Sector Performance
Looking Ahead to the Upcoming Week
Looking ahead to the week of February 9-15, key economic events will include testimony from Fed Chair Powell on both Tuesday and Wednesday, which could influence market sentiment. Inflation data is in focus, with the Core CPI, CPI m/m, and CPI y/y reports scheduled for Wednesday, followed by PPI and unemployment claims on Thursday. Retail sales and Core Retail Sales m/m data will be released on Friday, providing further insight into consumer spending trends. Market participants will also watch for Crude Oil Inventories and a speech from FOMC member Waller on Wednesday, as these could impact expectations for future Fed policy moves.
On the earnings front, major reports will come from McDonald’s (MCD), Shopify (SHOP), Coca-Cola (KO), CVS Health (CVS), Cisco (CSCO), and Disney (DIS), among others. Tuesday and Wednesday will be particularly busy, with major players like Lyft (LYFT), Reddit (RDDT), and Palantir (PLTR) releasing results. Thursday features earnings from major industrials and tech companies, including General Electric (GE), Sony (SONY), and Airbnb (ABNB). Friday's earnings will be lighter, with Moderna (MRNA) and Enbridge (ENB) being the notable companies reporting before the open. Investors will be closely monitoring these results to gauge corporate performance amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
Economic Events
Earnings Event
Market Health
The market is distributing.
Broader Market - SPY, QQQ, IWM, MDY
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) continue to maintain their uptrends, trading near recent highs with strong bullish momentum, supported by rising moving averages and higher lows. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is consolidating within a range, facing resistance around $244 while holding key support near $220, suggesting a potential breakout or further consolidation. The S&P MidCap 400 ETF (MDY) is also testing support levels after a recent pullback, showing resilience but facing selling pressure near resistance at $624. The market remains in an overall bullish trend, but upcoming economic events and earnings could drive short-term volatility and potential pullbacks. Traders should watch for breakouts above resistance levels or breakdowns below key support zones to gauge the next move.
Watch List
ARM, APP, SNOW, TOST
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